In the current fast-paced threat environment, vulnerability management has shifted from simply identifying weaknesses to strategically prioritizing the risks that matter most. With increasing complexity and frequency of cyber attacks, organizations are finding it challenging to match the number of vulnerabilities reported by scanners, cloud-native tools, CSPM platforms, and ASM systems. Legacy scoring models, such as CVSS (Common Vulnerability Scoring System), although useful, do not hold water when ranking risk in terms of exploitation in the real world.
This is where EPSS (Exploit Prediction Scoring System) is redefining how security teams tackle vulnerability management by moving beyond static severity scores and into dynamic, data-driven risk prediction.
The Challenge: Too Many Vulnerabilities, Too Little Time
It’s not uncommon for organizations today to be hit with an onslaught of findings, everything from software misconfigurations and open APIs to vulnerabilities in shadow IT assets. There are simply too many to resolve, and expecting teams to patch every one of them is unrealistic and wasteful.
The actual challenge isn’t finding vulnerabilities, it’s knowing where to put your attention. Priorities gone wrong squander time, drive up expenses, and leave essential exposures untouched.
Where CVSS Falls Short
CVSS has been the industry standard for vulnerability rating according to established criteria. However, it lacks one critical element—context. For instance, a widely publicized OpenSSH vulnerability was assigned a CVSS score of just 5.9, indicating only ‘medium’ severity. Most teams ignored it. But the attackers did not. It was exploited in the wild as security teams continued to concentrate on higher-rated, but less significant, vulnerabilities. This discrepancy between hypothetical severity and actual probability has catastrophic implications.
EPSS: A Smarter Way to Prioritize
The Exploit Prediction Scoring System (EPSS) fills the gap by predicting the likelihood of a specified vulnerability being exploited within 30 days. This model is based on actual world data like exploit availability, active attacker desire, and vulnerability metadata to create predictive scores.
In the case of OpenSSH above, although CVSS had ranked the problem as a 5.9, EPSS gave it a 95% likelihood of exploitation, a clear red flag that would have spurred quicker remediation.
Advantages of Using EPSS
- Enhanced Prioritization: EPSS empowers security teams to strategically streamline their remediation efforts. Research indicates that addressing just the top 3% of vulnerabilities, those with the highest EPSS scores, can effectively mitigate the vast majority of active, in-the-wild exploitation attempts.
- Less Noise: Teams can prevent spending too much time on high CVSS problems with little to no chance of being exploited.
- Measurable Risk: EPSS introduces statistical analysis into remediation processes, enabling CISOs and security leaders to make informed decisions and maximize security investments.
Applying EPSS in Practice
In order to have a more mature and successful vulnerability management program, organizations need to incorporate EPSS as part of their prioritization plan:
- Combine EPSS with CVSS and Asset Criticality: Multiply EPSS scores with asset value or business impact measurements to determine the most critical threats.
- Target Imminent Risk: Leverage EPSS to expose risks most likely to be taken advantage of in the near future. This is the secret to protecting protecting against high-speed threat actors.
- Automate Where Possible: For large enterprise environments, utilize vulnerability management solutions that natively include EPSS scoring to automate triage, monitoring, and reporting.
- Report with Context: Leverage EPSS to provide better communication of threats to business stakeholders by correlating remediation to real-world probability and effect, rather than technical severity.
CVSS remains a factor, but it’s no longer sufficient alone!
In an era where cyberattacks can exploit newly disclosed vulnerabilities within hours, traditional, static approaches to vulnerability management are no longer sufficient. Organizations must move beyond severity scores and embrace predictive, intelligence-led strategies to stay ahead of threats.
The urgency of modern cybersecurity demands more than a severity rating; it requires real-time, predictive insight. The Exploit Prediction Scoring System (EPSS) represents a crucial advancement toward intelligence-driven vulnerability management. By incorporating EPSS into their cybersecurity programs, organizations can prioritize vulnerabilities based not just on theoretical impact, but on the actual likelihood of exploitation. This shift enables security teams to focus remediation efforts where they will have the greatest effect, reducing real-world risk rather than simply fulfilling compliance requirements.
Looking ahead to 2025 and beyond, effective vulnerability management is no longer about reacting to the loudest alerts. It’s about anticipating which weaknesses are most likely to be targeted and acting decisively. EPSS provides the data-driven clarity needed to cut through the noise and respond to what truly matters.
